There are concerns that a bailout for the country may not be enough to prevent a default. Moreover, it might even be replicated in other indebted nations. Stock market, however, behave as this were an unlikely outcome of the current crisis. Markets are also betting that a V-shaped recession has developed and economies are on the right path to recover. (With a lot of sovereign debt though that will impact on growth at least in western countries).
The Euro weakened, but continues to remain above 1.32. I have been expecting lower prices for quite a long time, but so far the breakout has not occurred.
The SPDR Gold Trust is moving above the trendline very close to its high, but underperforming the stock market. The dollar strength may have influenced this situation, but the perception of dollar as a safe have may have aalso decreased lately. It will come back, I am sure.
The emini S&P continues its up leg. Quite regularly and impressive! I am not following this bull market and not making money. This is quite frustrating but chasing prices is soething I do not like.
Even more impressive is the Nasdaq and tech stocks. With the emini at 2053 (see the weekly chart), we are not so far from the high of 2263 printed back at the end of 2007. What a great opportunity.
I am sure markets will surprise us again....
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
China's Multiple Bubbles
Received from Angelica as a comment to my post Too Much Optimism In this Stock Market, I am glad to publish it because I find it very interesting.
I am in the camp that believes that this so-called economic recovery over the past 12 months has been completely due to government spending and stimulus. Trading volume since January 1st of this year has been very light and definitely not indicative of strong buying by the general public. Who then is doing the buying? The Federal Reserve has representatives in the trading pits of the NYSE and commodity exchanges giving support to asset prices. I firmly believe we will experience years and years of deflation where everything goes down in value, yes, including gold and oil. Sorry for you commodity bulls but you are about to experience what happens to commodities when demand falls off a cliff. China has been experiencing that for the past year and a half but has been lying about its economic realities. Wait till that comes to full light. When China's multiple bubbles burst it will be something to watch. I keep a large portion of my portfolio in cash and it makes sense to speculate in reverse ETF positions on the indexes. I believe we will see some significant corrections in the next several months. Timing these major down moves is tricky business. Only the strong of heart and wills need apply.
I am in the camp that believes that this so-called economic recovery over the past 12 months has been completely due to government spending and stimulus. Trading volume since January 1st of this year has been very light and definitely not indicative of strong buying by the general public. Who then is doing the buying? The Federal Reserve has representatives in the trading pits of the NYSE and commodity exchanges giving support to asset prices. I firmly believe we will experience years and years of deflation where everything goes down in value, yes, including gold and oil. Sorry for you commodity bulls but you are about to experience what happens to commodities when demand falls off a cliff. China has been experiencing that for the past year and a half but has been lying about its economic realities. Wait till that comes to full light. When China's multiple bubbles burst it will be something to watch. I keep a large portion of my portfolio in cash and it makes sense to speculate in reverse ETF positions on the indexes. I believe we will see some significant corrections in the next several months. Timing these major down moves is tricky business. Only the strong of heart and wills need apply.
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) Struggles For A Rebound
Working gas in storage was 1,756 Bcf as of Friday, April 9, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 64 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 246 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,510 Bcf.
Storage Report
Expectations were for a better number. Unfortunately. I say unfortunately because I am still lon here. And it is painful again.
I read this article:
Natural Gas Futures Support Potential For Long Term Reversal Of The Natural Gas ETF (NYSE: UNG)
On April 1st, May natural Gas had powerful rally which on the daily chart reflects the potency of the longest time series support we have mentioned over the last several weeks. The six percent rally that day was a start to building cause for a major reversal in trend.
...prior to entering this ETF, waiting for trade over $4.45 basis May Natural Gas to confirm the change of trend would be wise or the equivalent of $8.09 on “UNG.” We caution against long term investors prematurely entering this market.
And actually UNG is struggling to build a base to project prices toward $8.50, a first possible objective. If I manage to close this break even I swear I will never trade UNG any more.....
I was in Qatar a few weeks ago. You know that the country is a big player expanding its production.
The fuel’s value is falling as Qatar raises liquefied natural gas output 44 percent this year and new supplies from North American shale rock cut U.S. imports to their lowest in more than a decade last year.
Algeria, Africa’s biggest exporter of natural gas, is getting no help from Russia and Qatar in curbing production to increase prices.
To know more about the situation you can read:
Gas OPEC Boosting Output Sends Prices Lower for Worst Commodity
Algeria’s Khelil said March 16 in Vienna that users are reducing the volumes they take under multiyear contracts in favor of more spot gas. He called for a reduction of sales on European spot markets, such as the U.K.’s National Balancing Point, and said a gas price of $13 to $14 a million Btus was the “target” with crude oil near $80 a barrel.
Storage Report
Expectations were for a better number. Unfortunately. I say unfortunately because I am still lon here. And it is painful again.
I read this article:
Natural Gas Futures Support Potential For Long Term Reversal Of The Natural Gas ETF (NYSE: UNG)
On April 1st, May natural Gas had powerful rally which on the daily chart reflects the potency of the longest time series support we have mentioned over the last several weeks. The six percent rally that day was a start to building cause for a major reversal in trend.
...prior to entering this ETF, waiting for trade over $4.45 basis May Natural Gas to confirm the change of trend would be wise or the equivalent of $8.09 on “UNG.” We caution against long term investors prematurely entering this market.
And actually UNG is struggling to build a base to project prices toward $8.50, a first possible objective. If I manage to close this break even I swear I will never trade UNG any more.....
I was in Qatar a few weeks ago. You know that the country is a big player expanding its production.
The fuel’s value is falling as Qatar raises liquefied natural gas output 44 percent this year and new supplies from North American shale rock cut U.S. imports to their lowest in more than a decade last year.
Algeria, Africa’s biggest exporter of natural gas, is getting no help from Russia and Qatar in curbing production to increase prices.
To know more about the situation you can read:
Gas OPEC Boosting Output Sends Prices Lower for Worst Commodity
Algeria’s Khelil said March 16 in Vienna that users are reducing the volumes they take under multiyear contracts in favor of more spot gas. He called for a reduction of sales on European spot markets, such as the U.K.’s National Balancing Point, and said a gas price of $13 to $14 a million Btus was the “target” with crude oil near $80 a barrel.
iShares Silver Trust (ETF)(SLV) Sell Off
Silver short-term trend changed after Friday's sell off of 4%. The Force Index indicator in fact turned negative.
You can see that gold and silver have printed the same performance since the beginning of the year.
Many analysts see a grim future for precious metals after Goldman Sachs' event.
Read on Zerohedge:
Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure
Of course, Friday's action does not change much to the sideways market that we have seen since the beginning of this year in silver and gold. However, it is interesting to note that they underperformed stocks. Should a correction of equities start they may be vulnerable, although gold could eventually be seen as a safe haven. For European investors the exchange rate of the dollar could help their performance, as the dollar should appreciate in that situation.
You can see that gold and silver have printed the same performance since the beginning of the year.
Many analysts see a grim future for precious metals after Goldman Sachs' event.
Read on Zerohedge:
Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure
Of course, Friday's action does not change much to the sideways market that we have seen since the beginning of this year in silver and gold. However, it is interesting to note that they underperformed stocks. Should a correction of equities start they may be vulnerable, although gold could eventually be seen as a safe haven. For European investors the exchange rate of the dollar could help their performance, as the dollar should appreciate in that situation.
Types of Trade Talk
On Daily Speculations this is one of the best posts published lately by Victor Niederhoffer.
What are the many types of people who disseminate their views about the market?
Of all the characters this is the one I like the most, because I think these guys populates the web and the blogosphere:
There's the would be manager, the personage without funds who wishes to impress you with his knowledge and ideas so that you will put money up with him.
There were excellent comments. This is my favorite:
Mike
What about the lone sailor, who everyday has to keep going, no matter how big or flat the seas may be, sometimes finding big treasures and maybe losing them in a big storm, or finding nothing at all. No one to blame for his loses or wins but himself.
The seas have him forever, maybe its the thought of more treasure that drives him, or the chase, but whatever the reason he can not go back to dry land.
He may have been net way ahead, in terms of his wealth, if he only he worked for the city, but such insanity would be 100times worse than trying to navigate the seas.
So with no other options everyday he sets sail, working to navigate today a little better than yesterday.
I felt to reply:
Paolo Pezzutti
Mike,
your comment is very insightful. May be it is so close to my profession… There is an incredible similarity between the sea and the markets. You navigate to see something new, unexpected. Because stability and routine are harmful to morale. Because you see life as a continuous search. You can find treasures or storms. Most of the times, you do not get rich, but that is not the purpose. The purpose is the search, the quest, the chase of the prize.
What are the many types of people who disseminate their views about the market?
Of all the characters this is the one I like the most, because I think these guys populates the web and the blogosphere:
There's the would be manager, the personage without funds who wishes to impress you with his knowledge and ideas so that you will put money up with him.
There were excellent comments. This is my favorite:
Mike
What about the lone sailor, who everyday has to keep going, no matter how big or flat the seas may be, sometimes finding big treasures and maybe losing them in a big storm, or finding nothing at all. No one to blame for his loses or wins but himself.
The seas have him forever, maybe its the thought of more treasure that drives him, or the chase, but whatever the reason he can not go back to dry land.
He may have been net way ahead, in terms of his wealth, if he only he worked for the city, but such insanity would be 100times worse than trying to navigate the seas.
So with no other options everyday he sets sail, working to navigate today a little better than yesterday.
I felt to reply:
Paolo Pezzutti
Mike,
your comment is very insightful. May be it is so close to my profession… There is an incredible similarity between the sea and the markets. You navigate to see something new, unexpected. Because stability and routine are harmful to morale. Because you see life as a continuous search. You can find treasures or storms. Most of the times, you do not get rich, but that is not the purpose. The purpose is the search, the quest, the chase of the prize.
Europe Weakness Is The Main Reason For A Strong Dollar
As difficulties in Greek bailout continue and it is evident how in Europe the issue of sovereign debt will play an important role in the next months, the dollar has developed a rebound in the past days goi back up to 1.369. The weakness of Europe is a theme that will be recurring. Although the situation of debt in the US is very serious, in Europe it is a problem TODAY and will not go away. I think there are the elements to see a stronger dollar.
US Dollar Is To Gain Strength
Technically, the dollar is developing 5 waves to the downside and now it is in wave 4. We should see the rest of 1.327 and hopefully a breakout.
US Dollar Is To Gain Strength
Technically, the dollar is developing 5 waves to the downside and now it is in wave 4. We should see the rest of 1.327 and hopefully a breakout.
Amazon Inc (AMZN): Prices Could Go Down To $100
Can you see the big open gap printed on 23 October? Is it time to fill that gap? Amazon is a great company and the stock performance has been excellent in the past years (price moved up from $30 to $140!). Technically, there are elements to believe that the long run up could be over, at least for some time. A double top may be printed with major negative divergences of indicators. The Force Index indicator still signals an up trend and indeed it will take some time before a corrective scenario is recognized as such. However, a 30% correction could be possible from here if this scenario plays out correctly. We will see in the next days if AMZN develops negative patterns that would confirm this view. A first objective could be the test of the $115 level, the low of recent down leg completed 2 months ago, in February 10.
Google Inc (GOOG): The High Was Printed
The big open gap on Friday will not be easily filled. For bears that will be the final capitulation, in case price will manage to go back to $600. Looking at the chart I think however that this opens a corrective phase that could bring price down to about $490. In fact, after the top at $629.51 on 4 Jan, GOOG moved down to $520 on 25 Feb. It is an $110 leg. The retracement of this last up leg was about 2/3 of the down move.
This gap looks like a breakaway gap.
From Twitter:
Google Spends a Bundle on Ads — But Why? http://dlvr.it/XRh3
How did your GOOG earning play turn out.....
look at the divergence of GOOG and AAPL stock performance in recent weeks....
GOOG was an accident waiting to happen...
GOOGLE beat on earnings and got slammed
420-440 is the next target
The Truth and the Periphery: Tell Me GOOGLE, which way is the SP500 really headed?: http://bit.ly/bHvfGD
It will rebound hard.
Wouldn't be surprised 2 see $GOOG continue down on Monday.
This gap looks like a breakaway gap.
From Twitter:
Google Spends a Bundle on Ads — But Why? http://dlvr.it/XRh3
How did your GOOG earning play turn out.....
look at the divergence of GOOG and AAPL stock performance in recent weeks....
GOOG was an accident waiting to happen...
GOOGLE beat on earnings and got slammed
420-440 is the next target
The Truth and the Periphery: Tell Me GOOGLE, which way is the SP500 really headed?: http://bit.ly/bHvfGD
It will rebound hard.
Wouldn't be surprised 2 see $GOOG continue down on Monday.
Goldman Sachs, Generals And New Paternalism
Very interesting read at CATO Unbound:
The Rise of The New Paternalism
It is well-established that people exhibit extremeness aversion: a tendency to avoid positions that are presented as extremes. When choosing between a low-end camera and a medium-quality camera, for instance, potential buyers split about equally between the two — but when these two options are presented alongside a high-end camera, the medium-quality camera attracts substantially more buyers. The mere presence of an extreme option makes the middle option seem better. The new paternalists, intentionally or not, have exploited this same tendency by presenting their position as a middle-ground between laissez-faire and heavy-handed paternalism.
At the same time, looking at ploys and diversions as part of the tactics to draw the attention of the opponent away from a planned point of action or to be in a better position when hit is interesting in Goldman Sachs story. Whether the market was sagely orchestrated the weeks before or the blow is functional to political maneuvers, or both, this reminds of the preparation in all details of a military campaign. What kind of battle shall we expect now? A blitzkrieg to encircle the enemy before they have time to reposition, a type of shock and awe approach that brings the enemy to rapidly lose their will to fight, or a retrenchment type of fight long and exhausting? Who are and what personalities have the generals orchestrating this campaign? Are they bold and dashing or rather pondering and shrewd? We could envision the future from this analysis because even in the era of algorithmic and high frequency trading it is still the human factor that counts.
The Rise of The New Paternalism
It is well-established that people exhibit extremeness aversion: a tendency to avoid positions that are presented as extremes. When choosing between a low-end camera and a medium-quality camera, for instance, potential buyers split about equally between the two — but when these two options are presented alongside a high-end camera, the medium-quality camera attracts substantially more buyers. The mere presence of an extreme option makes the middle option seem better. The new paternalists, intentionally or not, have exploited this same tendency by presenting their position as a middle-ground between laissez-faire and heavy-handed paternalism.
At the same time, looking at ploys and diversions as part of the tactics to draw the attention of the opponent away from a planned point of action or to be in a better position when hit is interesting in Goldman Sachs story. Whether the market was sagely orchestrated the weeks before or the blow is functional to political maneuvers, or both, this reminds of the preparation in all details of a military campaign. What kind of battle shall we expect now? A blitzkrieg to encircle the enemy before they have time to reposition, a type of shock and awe approach that brings the enemy to rapidly lose their will to fight, or a retrenchment type of fight long and exhausting? Who are and what personalities have the generals orchestrating this campaign? Are they bold and dashing or rather pondering and shrewd? We could envision the future from this analysis because even in the era of algorithmic and high frequency trading it is still the human factor that counts.
Goldman Sachs (GS) And "The Night Of The Long Knives"
This reminds of "The Night Of The Long Knives" also called Operation Hummingbird.
It is interesting how the market was carefully "prepared" for this event that occurs after an impressive up leg. We will see if it will be able to trigger more volatility. It will say a lot about this market.
Goldman Sachs Said to Have Been Warned of SEC Suit
GS fell 13 percent yesterday after U.S. regulators announced fraud accusations, didn’t disclose that it was warned nine months ago that investigators wanted to bring a case, people with direct knowledge of the talks said. In March, the New York-based firm said it was cooperating with regulators’ “requests for information.”
Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure
Gold traders who observed this spike in commercial shorts, especially when combined with the surprising strong gold price action over the past two weeks, are concerned that the news about Goldman, and its ramifications on Paulson's holdings of GLD, may have leaked over the past 10 days to allow banks to front-run today's hit in the price of Gold. The question of whether or not Paulson's worries will materialize into an actual partial or full-scale liqudation will be an open ended question for some time: today many of the key Paulson positions, primarily in financials and commodities have gotten hit hard, leading many to believe that the market may force his hand.
Goldman Serves One Master Better Than the Others: Jonathan Weil
Who knew the folks at the SEC still had it in them to accuse a major Wall Street bank of fraud?
Here is a summary of the story:
SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud
Best from Twitter:
About time: U.S. Accuses Goldman Sachs of Fraud in Mortgage Deals http://nyti.ms/d6OByE
Mixx: SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud http://su.pr/1gnRRq http://t.mixx.com/SQ6N
DETAILS U.S. charges Goldman Sachs with FRAUD, firm sold investments designed to fail http://huff.to/db2rwS
Goldman Sachs charged with fraud by SEC http://link.reuters.com/kah28j
Goldman Sachs' fraud explained: how they pulled it off http://huff.to/cZj2aa
Know Thyself: Your Response to the Goldman Selloff Speaks to Your Recovery Convictions
A volcanic cloud over Wall Street
Investor Who Made Billions Is Not Target of Suit
Do you really think SEC went ahead without green signal from the powers
GOD’S WORK IS “ROTTEN TO THE CORE”
It is interesting how the market was carefully "prepared" for this event that occurs after an impressive up leg. We will see if it will be able to trigger more volatility. It will say a lot about this market.
Goldman Sachs Said to Have Been Warned of SEC Suit
GS fell 13 percent yesterday after U.S. regulators announced fraud accusations, didn’t disclose that it was warned nine months ago that investigators wanted to bring a case, people with direct knowledge of the talks said. In March, the New York-based firm said it was cooperating with regulators’ “requests for information.”
Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure
Gold traders who observed this spike in commercial shorts, especially when combined with the surprising strong gold price action over the past two weeks, are concerned that the news about Goldman, and its ramifications on Paulson's holdings of GLD, may have leaked over the past 10 days to allow banks to front-run today's hit in the price of Gold. The question of whether or not Paulson's worries will materialize into an actual partial or full-scale liqudation will be an open ended question for some time: today many of the key Paulson positions, primarily in financials and commodities have gotten hit hard, leading many to believe that the market may force his hand.
Goldman Serves One Master Better Than the Others: Jonathan Weil
Who knew the folks at the SEC still had it in them to accuse a major Wall Street bank of fraud?
Here is a summary of the story:
SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud
Best from Twitter:
About time: U.S. Accuses Goldman Sachs of Fraud in Mortgage Deals http://nyti.ms/d6OByE
Mixx: SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud http://su.pr/1gnRRq http://t.mixx.com/SQ6N
DETAILS U.S. charges Goldman Sachs with FRAUD, firm sold investments designed to fail http://huff.to/db2rwS
Goldman Sachs charged with fraud by SEC http://link.reuters.com/kah28j
Goldman Sachs' fraud explained: how they pulled it off http://huff.to/cZj2aa
Know Thyself: Your Response to the Goldman Selloff Speaks to Your Recovery Convictions
A volcanic cloud over Wall Street
Investor Who Made Billions Is Not Target of Suit
Do you really think SEC went ahead without green signal from the powers
GOD’S WORK IS “ROTTEN TO THE CORE”
Too Much Optimism In this Stock Market
It is common sense that the stock market anticipates what will happen in the economy after some time. The invisible hand of the market driven by millions of investors who make decisions according to different quantity and quality of information eventually represent the best way to encapsulate and synthesize the current status and prospects of the world's economy. But is this always true? Or for some reasons markets are resilient to change and slow in timely reading the information available?
If this is the case, what are these reasons and when does this happen? Can markets be manipulated by strong hands or there are simply forces that render decision making viscous and create a breakout friction before markets actually change the course they are following? Like a ship takes some time before reacting after the wheel is turned.
These questions are relevant today as they were before the beginning of the crisis two years ago. As loan underwritings standards deteriorated, the securitized mortgage market developed a bubble in housing prices that continued for quite some time until it finally popped. Even if we now read on several reports that it was clear to many what was about to happen, until the very last moment almost everybody continued to play the same sheet of music. Investors, regulators, government. The markets went on with huge inertia along the tracked lines of unrealistic risk assessments, walking on quants' clouds and careless of gravity. The longer they continue the more violent is the reaction eventually.
It seems to me that currently markets are in a similar situation. After the impressive injection of liquidity in the system (like an adrenalin shot to the heart) aimed to restore confidence and normal functioning of shaken markets, prices of assets have reflated for over a year now. In order to do this, sovereign debt in Europe and the US is increasing to levels that everybody knows are unsustainable. Still, for political reasons nobody wants to take the bitter medicine that would be needed. The show goes on with cheap money poured into assets that go up with a regularity and pace that is almost unprecedented. Regardless of unemployment, housing prices that in some states are going down again, the contracting credit to consumers, some states and cities are very close to bankrupcy, banks continue to be seized by the FDIC, industrial production levels are still 10% lower now than at the pre-recession peak, durable goods orders are almost 20% lower now than they were before the recession began. Finally, equities are up 75% from the lows, but earnings are still almost 40% below their pre-recession levels.
Is this manipulation? When and how is this going to finish? Or actually this time markets are reading correctly what is going on and are simply anticipating a global recovery and the consequent future increase in corporate profits?
If this is the case, what are these reasons and when does this happen? Can markets be manipulated by strong hands or there are simply forces that render decision making viscous and create a breakout friction before markets actually change the course they are following? Like a ship takes some time before reacting after the wheel is turned.
These questions are relevant today as they were before the beginning of the crisis two years ago. As loan underwritings standards deteriorated, the securitized mortgage market developed a bubble in housing prices that continued for quite some time until it finally popped. Even if we now read on several reports that it was clear to many what was about to happen, until the very last moment almost everybody continued to play the same sheet of music. Investors, regulators, government. The markets went on with huge inertia along the tracked lines of unrealistic risk assessments, walking on quants' clouds and careless of gravity. The longer they continue the more violent is the reaction eventually.
It seems to me that currently markets are in a similar situation. After the impressive injection of liquidity in the system (like an adrenalin shot to the heart) aimed to restore confidence and normal functioning of shaken markets, prices of assets have reflated for over a year now. In order to do this, sovereign debt in Europe and the US is increasing to levels that everybody knows are unsustainable. Still, for political reasons nobody wants to take the bitter medicine that would be needed. The show goes on with cheap money poured into assets that go up with a regularity and pace that is almost unprecedented. Regardless of unemployment, housing prices that in some states are going down again, the contracting credit to consumers, some states and cities are very close to bankrupcy, banks continue to be seized by the FDIC, industrial production levels are still 10% lower now than at the pre-recession peak, durable goods orders are almost 20% lower now than they were before the recession began. Finally, equities are up 75% from the lows, but earnings are still almost 40% below their pre-recession levels.
Is this manipulation? When and how is this going to finish? Or actually this time markets are reading correctly what is going on and are simply anticipating a global recovery and the consequent future increase in corporate profits?
Greece And Future Bailouts
During the weekend a rescue package of $61 billions was put together with support of the IMF. What can we now expect? It seems that risk of default of Greek banks remains high and even some reactions to the rescue package for the sovereign debt are tepid at best. Stock markets are not reacting much on the news, however the Euro gained on the US dollar almost 1% close to 1.36. This is the reaction I frankly do not understand well. What is Europe going to do when other countries find themselves in a similar situation? What if Spain and Portugal this summer have similar problems? What about Ireland and Italy? Is giving a bailout ging to be the solution to all problems or rather a means to delay critical decisions and the bitter medicine for many European countries and economies?
I believe that Europe in general is weaker after this decision rather than stronger. I think the Euro is weaker now than before. But the market is reacting differently....at least for now.
I believe that Europe in general is weaker after this decision rather than stronger. I think the Euro is weaker now than before. But the market is reacting differently....at least for now.
Dow: Flirting With 11000
The emini Dow has printed finally a down day. Worries over Greece problems and the possible rates rise are the news of the day. The force index indicator is now negative in the daily frame indicating that a corection might start from here. A strong dollar is testing 1.33. Momentum and volume are low, but the the emini managed to get close to 11000 without a pause. I continue to believe that a return within the trading range is likely. We could see a volatility increase. I am still short the S&P with a losing position to manage. A bull trap could bring prices back within the trading range.
Almost all stocks are moving above their 20-day and 50 and 100-day moving averages. Negtive trends only for very few of them. Some stocks are seeing their short term trend deteriorate. We will see if they are anticipating a wider correction, as I think. Only PG and TRV are printing a new 20-day low this morning. Only MCD is printing a new 20-day high. MSFT is printing 4 consecutive up closes. TRV is printin 5 consecutive down closes.
In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.
RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.
CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.
In my charts, I used three indicators.
The force Index indicator. I used the force index indicator, which is an indicator measuring the force of bulls during uptrends and the force of bears in downtrends. It takes into account price and volume. I applied a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the force index to help track the trend. When the trend is positive, the color is blue; when the trend is negative, the color is red.
I applied the %b indicator, which is derived from the Bollinger bands. It measures where the last price is in relation to the bands and it tells us where we are within the bands.
I used also the MACD indicator.
The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), , Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG),The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS)
Almost all stocks are moving above their 20-day and 50 and 100-day moving averages. Negtive trends only for very few of them. Some stocks are seeing their short term trend deteriorate. We will see if they are anticipating a wider correction, as I think. Only PG and TRV are printing a new 20-day low this morning. Only MCD is printing a new 20-day high. MSFT is printing 4 consecutive up closes. TRV is printin 5 consecutive down closes.
In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.
RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.
CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.
In my charts, I used three indicators.
The force Index indicator. I used the force index indicator, which is an indicator measuring the force of bulls during uptrends and the force of bears in downtrends. It takes into account price and volume. I applied a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the force index to help track the trend. When the trend is positive, the color is blue; when the trend is negative, the color is red.
I applied the %b indicator, which is derived from the Bollinger bands. It measures where the last price is in relation to the bands and it tells us where we are within the bands.
I used also the MACD indicator.
The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), , Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG),The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS)
Euro Weakness - Greece And China Fears
Stronger yuan may deal another blow to euro
A loosening in China's yuan policy that lets the currency rise while keeping it pegged to the dollar may deal another blow to the battered euro as such a move is seen slowing China's accumulation of foreign reserves.
Market speculation is growing that China may soon allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar from the level at which it has been effectively pegged since mid-2008, and allow it to appreciate by around 5 percent by year-end to slow inflation.
Is Greece just the beginning?
The Greek crisis could be the beginning of a far bigger systemic meltdown. Greece has to pay a crippling price for the credit it needs to fund its sovereign debt. Greece is paying that 7% on 10 year borrowings of 20bn euros ($26.7bn; £17.5bn) of debt due for repayment over the next two months, as opposed to Germany which pays just 3%. Buoyed by a cyclical recovery, markets around the world have yet to recognise the complexity of this situation. When they do, it will also become apparent that Greece is part of a wider, and historically unfamiliar phenomenon - that of a simultaneous and large disruption to the balance sheet of many industrial countries. Tighten your seat belts.
The Euro would be a big loser in this situation. But I think also that this scenario is likely. Diversifying in US dollar assets could be an option for European investors. A flight to safety toward the US dollar could occur, although in the longer term also the sovereign debt situation of the US is a time bomb.
US Dollar Is To Gain Strength
In the shorter term, the EURUSD chart display how prices are finally testing the 1.33 level. A breakout would project prices toward 1.30. In the daily and 60 minutes time frame, however there are positive divergences of indicators.
A loosening in China's yuan policy that lets the currency rise while keeping it pegged to the dollar may deal another blow to the battered euro as such a move is seen slowing China's accumulation of foreign reserves.
Market speculation is growing that China may soon allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar from the level at which it has been effectively pegged since mid-2008, and allow it to appreciate by around 5 percent by year-end to slow inflation.
Is Greece just the beginning?
The Greek crisis could be the beginning of a far bigger systemic meltdown. Greece has to pay a crippling price for the credit it needs to fund its sovereign debt. Greece is paying that 7% on 10 year borrowings of 20bn euros ($26.7bn; £17.5bn) of debt due for repayment over the next two months, as opposed to Germany which pays just 3%. Buoyed by a cyclical recovery, markets around the world have yet to recognise the complexity of this situation. When they do, it will also become apparent that Greece is part of a wider, and historically unfamiliar phenomenon - that of a simultaneous and large disruption to the balance sheet of many industrial countries. Tighten your seat belts.
The Euro would be a big loser in this situation. But I think also that this scenario is likely. Diversifying in US dollar assets could be an option for European investors. A flight to safety toward the US dollar could occur, although in the longer term also the sovereign debt situation of the US is a time bomb.
US Dollar Is To Gain Strength
In the shorter term, the EURUSD chart display how prices are finally testing the 1.33 level. A breakout would project prices toward 1.30. In the daily and 60 minutes time frame, however there are positive divergences of indicators.
Interest Rates Will Go Up - Catastrophe Ahead Or Unjustified Pessimism?
The long post-Volcker period of declining yields has finally ended. Volcker established that a central bank, when acting decisively enough, can break inflation. But fighting inflation has eventually taken second place in central banks' priorities to rescuing the economy and the financial sector. Of course, inflation is still currently low but investors are starting to demand a premium for the risk that fiscal and monetary policy will eventually generate higher prices. And, as the Greeks are discovering, rising bond yields add to the problems of a government with a weak economy and huge deficit. Economist
The burgeoning federal debt, which Klein mentioned as a potential catastrophe, would become even more onerous in this sort of environment. We are seeing some of these implications play out today as state and local governments are getting squeezed by the economic recession. For investors, as well, this would also be a momentous change. Abnormal Returns
Fed’s Hoening: Room to Raise Rates Without Hurting Recovery
The Federal Reserve could increase key rates toward 1% from near zero as a ward against inflation and possible bubbles in financial markets without hurting the nascent economic recovery, a Fed official said Wednesday.
The sovereign debt is increasing in the US and Europe. Interest rates going up could make things difficult for governments in order to fund their debt. At the same time it could hurt the weak economies of western countries. How is this going to change investors' prospects?
The burgeoning federal debt, which Klein mentioned as a potential catastrophe, would become even more onerous in this sort of environment. We are seeing some of these implications play out today as state and local governments are getting squeezed by the economic recession. For investors, as well, this would also be a momentous change. Abnormal Returns
Fed’s Hoening: Room to Raise Rates Without Hurting Recovery
The Federal Reserve could increase key rates toward 1% from near zero as a ward against inflation and possible bubbles in financial markets without hurting the nascent economic recovery, a Fed official said Wednesday.
The sovereign debt is increasing in the US and Europe. Interest rates going up could make things difficult for governments in order to fund their debt. At the same time it could hurt the weak economies of western countries. How is this going to change investors' prospects?
How Noise Trading Affects Markets: An Experimental Analysis
Bloomfield, O'Hara, and Saar:
How Noise Trading Affects Markets: An Experimental Analysis
Abstract
We use a laboratory market to investigate the behavior of noise traders and their impact on the market. Our experiment features informed traders (who possess fundamental information), liquidity traders (who have to trade for exogenous reasons), and noise traders (who do not possess fundamental information and have no exogenous reasons to trade). We find differences in behavior between liquidity traders and noise traders, justifying their separate treatment. We find that noise traders exert some positive effects on market
liquidity: volume and depths are higher and spreads are lower. We provide evidence suggesting that the main effect of the liquidity-enhancing trading strategies of the noise traders is to weaken price reversals (decreasing the temporary price impact of market orders) rather than to reduce the permanent price impact of trades (as liquidity traders supposedly do in market microstructure models with information asymmetry). We find that noise traders adversely affect the informational efficiency of the market, but only when the extent of adverse selection is large (i.e., when informed traders have very valuable private information). Finally, we examine
how trader behavior and certain market quality measures are affected by a transaction tax. Although such taxes do reduce noise trader activity, they take a toll on informed trading as well. As a result, while taxes reduce volume, they do not affect spreads and price impact measures, and have at most a weak effect on the informational efficiency of prices.
How Noise Trading Affects Markets: An Experimental Analysis
Abstract
We use a laboratory market to investigate the behavior of noise traders and their impact on the market. Our experiment features informed traders (who possess fundamental information), liquidity traders (who have to trade for exogenous reasons), and noise traders (who do not possess fundamental information and have no exogenous reasons to trade). We find differences in behavior between liquidity traders and noise traders, justifying their separate treatment. We find that noise traders exert some positive effects on market
liquidity: volume and depths are higher and spreads are lower. We provide evidence suggesting that the main effect of the liquidity-enhancing trading strategies of the noise traders is to weaken price reversals (decreasing the temporary price impact of market orders) rather than to reduce the permanent price impact of trades (as liquidity traders supposedly do in market microstructure models with information asymmetry). We find that noise traders adversely affect the informational efficiency of the market, but only when the extent of adverse selection is large (i.e., when informed traders have very valuable private information). Finally, we examine
how trader behavior and certain market quality measures are affected by a transaction tax. Although such taxes do reduce noise trader activity, they take a toll on informed trading as well. As a result, while taxes reduce volume, they do not affect spreads and price impact measures, and have at most a weak effect on the informational efficiency of prices.
David Rosenberg: This Market Is Overvalued
From Breakfast With Dave 6 April:
- the Dow is within striking distance of 11,000, which sounds impressive until you realize we were also at this same milestone back on November 18, 1999.
- there is no disputing the improvement in the headline U.S. economic data, but the private sector credit contraction continues as the U.S. stimulus efforts begin to fade.
- there are still significant pockets of deflation, especially in real estate. Commodity prices, as powerful a source of inflation as they may well once have been in past decades, are no antidote for deflating wages
and rents in the context of a hugely oversupplied market for labour and real estate (not to mention that we have about 30% of U.S. manufacturing capacity sitting idle).
- Equities: This has been a rally done on extremely low volume because nobody is selling — same thing yesterday as the major indexes bounced to new 52-week highs.
- what is the catalyst for the inevitable corrective phase? Very likely the answer will be related to sovereign credit risks.
- we are talking about a $57trailing four-quarter trend in S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS). The
last time the S&P was rallying towards the 1,200 level in late 2004 that trend in EPS was $68, or 20% higher than it is todaythe market is anywhere between 20% and 30% overvalued.
- The ISM nonmanufacturing survey followed its manufacturing counterpart into fresh recovery
highs in March — now at 55.4 from 53.0 in February
- the latest data-point does point to a rebound in existing home sales
- Auto sales are off the lows but despite tremendous stimulus from cash-for-clunkers
- there is at best a tepid recovery in organic personal income which leaves it well below the prerecession
trend.
- Industrial production levels are still 10% lower now than at the pre-recession peak.
- durable goods orders are almost 20% lower now than they were before the recession began
- Final sales: we have barely made a dent into the recession loss
- Home prices appear to have stabilized but we are not convinced that this will be sustained
- equity market is up 75% from the lows; and earnings are still almost 40% below their pre-recession levels.
- The only items we could find to validate the V-shaped recovery view in the data were the ISM and exports. This story may be on its last legs with Europe fiscally-challenged and India and China both in the process of tightening monetary policy.
- the Dow is within striking distance of 11,000, which sounds impressive until you realize we were also at this same milestone back on November 18, 1999.
- there is no disputing the improvement in the headline U.S. economic data, but the private sector credit contraction continues as the U.S. stimulus efforts begin to fade.
- there are still significant pockets of deflation, especially in real estate. Commodity prices, as powerful a source of inflation as they may well once have been in past decades, are no antidote for deflating wages
and rents in the context of a hugely oversupplied market for labour and real estate (not to mention that we have about 30% of U.S. manufacturing capacity sitting idle).
- Equities: This has been a rally done on extremely low volume because nobody is selling — same thing yesterday as the major indexes bounced to new 52-week highs.
- what is the catalyst for the inevitable corrective phase? Very likely the answer will be related to sovereign credit risks.
- we are talking about a $57trailing four-quarter trend in S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS). The
last time the S&P was rallying towards the 1,200 level in late 2004 that trend in EPS was $68, or 20% higher than it is todaythe market is anywhere between 20% and 30% overvalued.
- The ISM nonmanufacturing survey followed its manufacturing counterpart into fresh recovery
highs in March — now at 55.4 from 53.0 in February
- the latest data-point does point to a rebound in existing home sales
- Auto sales are off the lows but despite tremendous stimulus from cash-for-clunkers
- there is at best a tepid recovery in organic personal income which leaves it well below the prerecession
trend.
- Industrial production levels are still 10% lower now than at the pre-recession peak.
- durable goods orders are almost 20% lower now than they were before the recession began
- Final sales: we have barely made a dent into the recession loss
- Home prices appear to have stabilized but we are not convinced that this will be sustained
- equity market is up 75% from the lows; and earnings are still almost 40% below their pre-recession levels.
- The only items we could find to validate the V-shaped recovery view in the data were the ISM and exports. This story may be on its last legs with Europe fiscally-challenged and India and China both in the process of tightening monetary policy.
Research In Motion (RIMM)
Flash
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- Study Finds 40% BlackBerry Users Want an iPhone http://bit.ly/aIAYNx
- RIMM Launches New BlackBerry App Development Tools - Tech Trader Daily http://bit.ly/acWOAq
- RIM Is Very Clueless About Apple's Competitive Threat - Forbes.com http://bit.ly/cySVkj
- Verizon Releases Small System Software Update for the BlackBerry http://bit.ly/aM1eUT
- Can Tech Continue To Soar? http://bit.ly/dzeWtS
- RIM Debuts Tools to Ease BlackBerry App Development http://cnbc.com/id/36194865
MSFT U.S. smartphone subs fell to 15.1% GOOG share rose to 9%, while $AAPL share dipped slightly to 25.4%. RIMM a leader with a 42.1%
UBS reiterated its “neutral” rating on Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) on Thursday and raised its price target on the company to $75.00 up from $72.00. UBS noted solid underlying demand for RIM’s Blackberry line of smart-phones
Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
Click here to download Flash Player now
View the full RIMM chart at Wikinvest
- Study Finds 40% BlackBerry Users Want an iPhone http://bit.ly/aIAYNx
- RIMM Launches New BlackBerry App Development Tools - Tech Trader Daily http://bit.ly/acWOAq
- RIM Is Very Clueless About Apple's Competitive Threat - Forbes.com http://bit.ly/cySVkj
- Verizon Releases Small System Software Update for the BlackBerry http://bit.ly/aM1eUT
- Can Tech Continue To Soar? http://bit.ly/dzeWtS
- RIM Debuts Tools to Ease BlackBerry App Development http://cnbc.com/id/36194865
MSFT U.S. smartphone subs fell to 15.1% GOOG share rose to 9%, while $AAPL share dipped slightly to 25.4%. RIMM a leader with a 42.1%
UBS reiterated its “neutral” rating on Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) on Thursday and raised its price target on the company to $75.00 up from $72.00. UBS noted solid underlying demand for RIM’s Blackberry line of smart-phones
Natural Gas Production Overstated! Gas prices Soar - United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) Soars
Can you believe it?
After looking for months at declining prices, high inventories and increasing production finally the EIA said last week that it would revise production figures later this month and the revisions "will be significant."
The number of rigs drilling for natural gas plunged as gas prices retreated from their 2008 summer highs above $13/MMBtu. The rig count dropped from a peak of 1,606 rigs in August of 2008 to a low of 665 rigs by mid-July 2009, according to data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes. However, natural gas output from the lower-48 states, over that same time period, fell just 1.2% to 62.55 billion cubic feet a day, according to the EIA. (US GAS: Futures Climb On Expected Gas Production Revisions).
The result is that prices soared from $6.82 to $7.62 in just 2 days. There is room to the upside as shorts will be squeezed. At the beginning of January UNG was above $10! The higher trendline of the channel that contained prices during the past 3 months is at $8.70.
My long position on UNG is starting to be less painful, but I am still far from breakeven.
On April 30, the EIA is scheduled to release its natural-gas monthly report for February. In the report, the agency will use the new methods to estimate gas supply and revise its January numbers. The numbers for 2009 won't be updated until late fall (Natural-Gas Data Overstated).
We will see if expectations can help keep up the momentum.
Interesting news:
Are Natural Gas Reserves Now Overstated?
Energy: Progress frozen
After looking for months at declining prices, high inventories and increasing production finally the EIA said last week that it would revise production figures later this month and the revisions "will be significant."
The number of rigs drilling for natural gas plunged as gas prices retreated from their 2008 summer highs above $13/MMBtu. The rig count dropped from a peak of 1,606 rigs in August of 2008 to a low of 665 rigs by mid-July 2009, according to data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes. However, natural gas output from the lower-48 states, over that same time period, fell just 1.2% to 62.55 billion cubic feet a day, according to the EIA. (US GAS: Futures Climb On Expected Gas Production Revisions).
The result is that prices soared from $6.82 to $7.62 in just 2 days. There is room to the upside as shorts will be squeezed. At the beginning of January UNG was above $10! The higher trendline of the channel that contained prices during the past 3 months is at $8.70.
My long position on UNG is starting to be less painful, but I am still far from breakeven.
On April 30, the EIA is scheduled to release its natural-gas monthly report for February. In the report, the agency will use the new methods to estimate gas supply and revise its January numbers. The numbers for 2009 won't be updated until late fall (Natural-Gas Data Overstated).
We will see if expectations can help keep up the momentum.
Interesting news:
Are Natural Gas Reserves Now Overstated?
Energy: Progress frozen
US Dollar Is To Gain Strength (EURUSD)
Compared to the Euro the US dollar should be stronger if you just compare prices of goods on both sides of the Atlantic. Things in Europe cost between 20% and 25% more than in the US. From cars to iPods, from BBQs to netbooks and cameras. Everything.
However, the majority of the analysts support the view that the future of the dollar is to be weaker. Trade deficits and now the unprecedented growth of sovereign debt in the US, all indicate that the dollar should be lower. Recent events in Greece and concerns about future problems in other European countries (the unfairly called PIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are keeping the dollar stronger only for now, these analysts say. Also the fact that the economy is improving in the US more than in Europe is seen as a temporary positive factor for the dollar. However, when you have positive news about major core economies, it’s not unusual to see a positive trend in commodity and emerging-market currencies.
In Europe the situation about sovereign debt is difficult and is complicated by the fact of having economies of different strength under the same currency. Political factors are also very important in a Eurozone where a common policy is very hard to agree as we have seen for Greece. I think that Europe is more vulnerable than the US and sovereign issues should prevail to influence the exchange rate in favor of the dollar. Very hard to predict though.
Lately we have seen equities go up and the dollar remain stronger. Unusual because in the past years strong equities have been associated with a weak dollar. It means that European issues have had a role. I believe that when the stock market finally develops a longer correction, we will see the dollar appreciate vs the Euro.
Technically the dollar after printing a low at 1.3266 on 25 March has developed a rebound at 1.359. Now we should see at least a retest of 1.33. There is a positive divergence of indicators in the daily time frame. If the breakout is succesful we should see prices go below 1.30 with the next down leg.
However, the majority of the analysts support the view that the future of the dollar is to be weaker. Trade deficits and now the unprecedented growth of sovereign debt in the US, all indicate that the dollar should be lower. Recent events in Greece and concerns about future problems in other European countries (the unfairly called PIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are keeping the dollar stronger only for now, these analysts say. Also the fact that the economy is improving in the US more than in Europe is seen as a temporary positive factor for the dollar. However, when you have positive news about major core economies, it’s not unusual to see a positive trend in commodity and emerging-market currencies.
In Europe the situation about sovereign debt is difficult and is complicated by the fact of having economies of different strength under the same currency. Political factors are also very important in a Eurozone where a common policy is very hard to agree as we have seen for Greece. I think that Europe is more vulnerable than the US and sovereign issues should prevail to influence the exchange rate in favor of the dollar. Very hard to predict though.
Lately we have seen equities go up and the dollar remain stronger. Unusual because in the past years strong equities have been associated with a weak dollar. It means that European issues have had a role. I believe that when the stock market finally develops a longer correction, we will see the dollar appreciate vs the Euro.
Technically the dollar after printing a low at 1.3266 on 25 March has developed a rebound at 1.359. Now we should see at least a retest of 1.33. There is a positive divergence of indicators in the daily time frame. If the breakout is succesful we should see prices go below 1.30 with the next down leg.
Citigroup Inc (C): Memories Of The Bailout
In the news Citigroup is still present with topics that recall te $45bn injection of US Treasury capital and the $306bn loan-loss guarantee, the biggest government support provided to any Wall Street company.
the first news is:
Ex-chairman of Citigroup to explain part in bank crisis
Charles 'Chuck' Prince, the former chairman of Citigroup, is to answer questions on the bank's near-downfall for the first time since the end of the financial crisis.
The second news is that Citigroup will raise base salaries by as much as 50 percent to help compensate for a reduction in annual bonuses. The biggest increases will go to investment bankers and traders (Citigroup Plans to Raise Salaries by as Much as 50%).
Finally, Simon Johnson, professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Business and author of 13 Bankers, says it's not only unfair, but that the bailouts Geithner and others engineered for the nation's biggest banks are dangerous. "They (the banks) really feel they're completely invulnerable," he tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip. The prevailing thought on Wall Street is, "if things go badly it’s not your problem," he says (Simon Johnson: Big Banks Are Blackmailing the Country).
Not exactly positive news for the image and the visibility of this big bank. Prices, however, are doing pretty well regardless of news and criticism. at least so far. We are very far from the $55 of 2007, but if you think that the low one year ago was at about $1, the price of $4.18 is not bad at all. It is a pretty impressive performance.
In the figure you can see the volatile Citigroup (in red) compared to SPY (in blue). Pretty bumpy ride... Note that the high at the end of August 2009 at $5.43 is far, however, from the present $ 4.18. I am not sure it will be easy for C to see this level again soon, although during these first months of 2010, C has done well going up more than 22% vs 9% of XLF. At the daily level, %b has developed a slight negative divergence. But who cares of divergences these days?
the first news is:
Ex-chairman of Citigroup to explain part in bank crisis
Charles 'Chuck' Prince, the former chairman of Citigroup, is to answer questions on the bank's near-downfall for the first time since the end of the financial crisis.
The second news is that Citigroup will raise base salaries by as much as 50 percent to help compensate for a reduction in annual bonuses. The biggest increases will go to investment bankers and traders (Citigroup Plans to Raise Salaries by as Much as 50%).
Finally, Simon Johnson, professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Business and author of 13 Bankers, says it's not only unfair, but that the bailouts Geithner and others engineered for the nation's biggest banks are dangerous. "They (the banks) really feel they're completely invulnerable," he tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip. The prevailing thought on Wall Street is, "if things go badly it’s not your problem," he says (Simon Johnson: Big Banks Are Blackmailing the Country).
Not exactly positive news for the image and the visibility of this big bank. Prices, however, are doing pretty well regardless of news and criticism. at least so far. We are very far from the $55 of 2007, but if you think that the low one year ago was at about $1, the price of $4.18 is not bad at all. It is a pretty impressive performance.
In the figure you can see the volatile Citigroup (in red) compared to SPY (in blue). Pretty bumpy ride... Note that the high at the end of August 2009 at $5.43 is far, however, from the present $ 4.18. I am not sure it will be easy for C to see this level again soon, although during these first months of 2010, C has done well going up more than 22% vs 9% of XLF. At the daily level, %b has developed a slight negative divergence. But who cares of divergences these days?
Charts Of The Day: Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
Daily Chart
60-minute Chart
In my charts, I used three indicators.
The force Index indicator. I used the force index indicator, which is an indicator measuring the force of bulls during uptrends and the force of bears in downtrends. It takes into account price and volume. I applied a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the force index to help track the trend. When the trend is positive, the color is blue; when the trend is negative, the color is red.
I applied the %b indicator, which is derived from the Bollinger bands. It measures where the last price is in relation to the bands and it tells us where we are within the bands.
I used also the MACD indicator.
Weekly Chart
Daily Chart
60-minute Chart
In my charts, I used three indicators.
The force Index indicator. I used the force index indicator, which is an indicator measuring the force of bulls during uptrends and the force of bears in downtrends. It takes into account price and volume. I applied a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the force index to help track the trend. When the trend is positive, the color is blue; when the trend is negative, the color is red.
I applied the %b indicator, which is derived from the Bollinger bands. It measures where the last price is in relation to the bands and it tells us where we are within the bands.
I used also the MACD indicator.
Western Economies Cannot Adapt Fast Enough
I agree on the assumption that the economy has to continuously adjust to redeploy workers into more productive industries and professions. Old, low productivity and low added value industries have to be abandoned to move into more remunerative sectors.
I do not dispute this because this is the tenet of growing economies and capitalism. This process may be painful for many workers laid off that have to retrain to find better or equal pays in their new jobs, but it brings progress and growth for the individual and the society.
However, I am starting to have doubts that this can be applied to the present situation of western economies, where jobs are simply cancelled to be created somewhere else in the world. This process is negative and is developing in parallel to the healthy process of adjustment I was referring. Jobs are transferred very quickly to areas of the world where labor is less expensive. Our economies cannot adjust adjust timely and fast enough to create enough jobs in the new sectors because the speed at which this transfer of wealth and jobs is occurring is unprecedented. This requires an impressive education system to adapt the professionality and retrain millions of workers very fast. This requires huge investments in high tech and higher value added areas. This takes time, capital, new infrastructures, a government that favors entrepreneurship.
How to manage this transition is the main issues and all elements of the society should be involved in this debate. I am convinced that the governement in the economy is inefficient and should be limited as much as possible. At the same time, without government support, the situation could be disruptive for millions of families while the process of adaptation develops.
Finally our competitors are not looking at us wihout doing anything. They are also moving quickly to acquire the technologies and move their production up the scale toward higher returns industries. They are working to put us out of the market and not be competitive.
Flexible and adaptable economies will be advantaged, but the process is going to be very painful. The transitory will be very long in any case because of unprecedented scale of what is happening. The challenges are huge and success is not ensured even for the most dynamic countries. The outcome, if we are not able to adapt, could be to see our economies and standard of living decline sharply in favor of others. We could simply see unemployment and poverty increase structurally.
I do not dispute this because this is the tenet of growing economies and capitalism. This process may be painful for many workers laid off that have to retrain to find better or equal pays in their new jobs, but it brings progress and growth for the individual and the society.
However, I am starting to have doubts that this can be applied to the present situation of western economies, where jobs are simply cancelled to be created somewhere else in the world. This process is negative and is developing in parallel to the healthy process of adjustment I was referring. Jobs are transferred very quickly to areas of the world where labor is less expensive. Our economies cannot adjust adjust timely and fast enough to create enough jobs in the new sectors because the speed at which this transfer of wealth and jobs is occurring is unprecedented. This requires an impressive education system to adapt the professionality and retrain millions of workers very fast. This requires huge investments in high tech and higher value added areas. This takes time, capital, new infrastructures, a government that favors entrepreneurship.
How to manage this transition is the main issues and all elements of the society should be involved in this debate. I am convinced that the governement in the economy is inefficient and should be limited as much as possible. At the same time, without government support, the situation could be disruptive for millions of families while the process of adaptation develops.
Finally our competitors are not looking at us wihout doing anything. They are also moving quickly to acquire the technologies and move their production up the scale toward higher returns industries. They are working to put us out of the market and not be competitive.
Flexible and adaptable economies will be advantaged, but the process is going to be very painful. The transitory will be very long in any case because of unprecedented scale of what is happening. The challenges are huge and success is not ensured even for the most dynamic countries. The outcome, if we are not able to adapt, could be to see our economies and standard of living decline sharply in favor of others. We could simply see unemployment and poverty increase structurally.
Interest Rates Rise
Interest rates spike up
When bond yields and stock prices rise together, I would usually read that as a signal of rising investor optimism about future real economic activity.
This week, some investors turned up their noses at three big U.S. Treasury offerings. Demand was weak for a $44 billion 2-year note auction on Tuesday, a $42 billion sale of 5-year debt on Wednesday and a $32 billion 7-year note sale Thursday.
The poor demand, especially from foreign investors, sent the bonds' prices sharply lower and yields higher.
Barclays offers 3 treasury ETFs. They are:
iSHARES Lehman 20+ Year Tsy Bond Fund (TLT),
iSHARES Lehman 7-10 Year Tsy Bond Fund (IEF),
and iSHARES Lehman 1-3 Year Tsy Bond Fund (SHY).
Paul Krugman is not concerned:
Perspective On Interest Rates
Looking at the chartsI can only see a wide trading range so far. Prices are still higher than last summer....
When bond yields and stock prices rise together, I would usually read that as a signal of rising investor optimism about future real economic activity.
This week, some investors turned up their noses at three big U.S. Treasury offerings. Demand was weak for a $44 billion 2-year note auction on Tuesday, a $42 billion sale of 5-year debt on Wednesday and a $32 billion 7-year note sale Thursday.
The poor demand, especially from foreign investors, sent the bonds' prices sharply lower and yields higher.
Barclays offers 3 treasury ETFs. They are:
iSHARES Lehman 20+ Year Tsy Bond Fund (TLT),
iSHARES Lehman 7-10 Year Tsy Bond Fund (IEF),
and iSHARES Lehman 1-3 Year Tsy Bond Fund (SHY).
Paul Krugman is not concerned:
Perspective On Interest Rates
Looking at the chartsI can only see a wide trading range so far. Prices are still higher than last summer....
Expansion of Offshore Oil and Gas Development
Risk Is Clear in Drilling; Payoff Isn’t
President Obama set out to fashion a carefully balanced plan that would attract bipartisan support for climate and energy legislation while increasing production of domestic oil.
Obama's energy challenge is coal, not oil
45 percent of the nation's electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants.
Oil Firms Could Produce on Atlantic Shelf in 7 Years - Study
The offshore U.S. Atlantic Continental Shelf could contain 3.8 billion barrels (Bb) of oil and 137 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. First production could be as early as seven years in the area that the Obama Administration announced will be open to exploration, but any current estimates are still very preliminary, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Obama And Drilling
Obama shifts, says he may back offshore drilling
I'm sure the Republicans are going to praise Obama for his flexible stance now that he's decided to push a compromise with their oh so practical agenda
Offshore Drilling: Look, Before You Go Deep
A new era of U.S. offshore oil exploration began on Wednesday, and offshore drilling stocks rallied.
Fact Check: U.S. dependence on foreign oil
The United States is the world's third largest crude oil producer, but still imports the majority of oil it uses. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 43 percent of the oil used in the United States is domestically produced and 57 percent is imported.
Can Anyone Explain This Offshore Drilling Decision?
I've been scratching my head and I'll admit that I'm completely confused by this decision, or at least by its timing.
What’s Behind Obama’s Drilling Plan
Drill Now to Drill Less Later
More Drilling, More Risk
No Solutions, but Some Progress
A Questionable Negotiating Strategy
Unprotected Florida
Obama Opens Offshore Drilling: Oil ETFs Soar
Most energy ETFs trended higher on the news, while oil service firms as well as oil explorers seemed to be the main beneficiaries of the new ruling.
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Fund (XES)
PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services Fund (PXJ)
Merrill Lynch Market Oil Service HOLDR (OIH)
President Obama set out to fashion a carefully balanced plan that would attract bipartisan support for climate and energy legislation while increasing production of domestic oil.
Obama's energy challenge is coal, not oil
45 percent of the nation's electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants.
Oil Firms Could Produce on Atlantic Shelf in 7 Years - Study
The offshore U.S. Atlantic Continental Shelf could contain 3.8 billion barrels (Bb) of oil and 137 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. First production could be as early as seven years in the area that the Obama Administration announced will be open to exploration, but any current estimates are still very preliminary, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Obama And Drilling
Obama shifts, says he may back offshore drilling
I'm sure the Republicans are going to praise Obama for his flexible stance now that he's decided to push a compromise with their oh so practical agenda
Offshore Drilling: Look, Before You Go Deep
A new era of U.S. offshore oil exploration began on Wednesday, and offshore drilling stocks rallied.
Fact Check: U.S. dependence on foreign oil
The United States is the world's third largest crude oil producer, but still imports the majority of oil it uses. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 43 percent of the oil used in the United States is domestically produced and 57 percent is imported.
Can Anyone Explain This Offshore Drilling Decision?
I've been scratching my head and I'll admit that I'm completely confused by this decision, or at least by its timing.
What’s Behind Obama’s Drilling Plan
Drill Now to Drill Less Later
More Drilling, More Risk
No Solutions, but Some Progress
A Questionable Negotiating Strategy
Unprotected Florida
Obama Opens Offshore Drilling: Oil ETFs Soar
Most energy ETFs trended higher on the news, while oil service firms as well as oil explorers seemed to be the main beneficiaries of the new ruling.
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Fund (XES)
PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services Fund (PXJ)
Merrill Lynch Market Oil Service HOLDR (OIH)
Apple Inc (AAPL) - iPad: High Expectations
Special Report: iPad striptease: It's what's inside that counts
Whether the iPad flops or becomes the next big thing, the competition to accurately divulge who made which microprocessor and sundry other parts will be fierce.
Apple’s IPad Bet Requires ‘Leap of Faith’ From Buyers
Apple Inc., looking to succeed where rivals like Microsoft Corp. failed, is betting that consumers are finally ready for tablet computers, even if they have to do without some features.
Apple IPad a ‘Winner,’ ‘Game Changer,’ Reviewers Say
Apple Inc.’s iPad touch-screen tablet is a winning product that threatens to replace laptops as the dominant format for personal computers, reviewers said.
To be or not to be. There has been a lot f talk about the iPad since the announcement of its launch. Still, many debate what i really is, what it can do, what are the applications (iPad Applications Focus On Gaming) that are best fit for the iPad. But the main question that remains is: how is it going to impact on the stock's price?
Weekly Chart
In the daily chart you can see that AAPL has managed to break out to the upside the slightly rising channel that contained prices during the last months. The Force Index indicator continues to signal the the uptrend is ongoing.
In the 60 minute chart you can see that the MACD is printing a negative divergence. We have seen this happen many times during this last year and then prices continued to print new highs...
From Twitter:
- What Apple critics never understand, ppl don't care about specs. They care about tech that works and gets out of the way. AAPL delivers
- CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Gaining On RIM Fast
- MSFT Office for iPad inot an option?
- Electronics Art Goes Wild With iPad App Pricing
- Conspiracy theories welcome: Apple Screws Top Gadget Blogs: No Early iPad Review Units http://bit.ly/caqLfM
- Apple Racking Up Victories In Its War With Flash
- The Same Stupid Guy Who's First In Line For Everything Is The First Guy In Line For The iPad http://bit.ly/cDthXs
- Apple Investor: Wall Street Sees Up To 400K iPads Sold This Weekend http://bit.ly/amMMXV
- China ready to roll out iPad clones http://bit.ly/dmnsIk
- @billcpu: high water mark is now. Lawsuit + iPad release is the ceiling.
- so sick of hearing about the iPad
- martalyall: I think people will be better off in $AAPL 's cloud than $GOOG le's. Google is like KGB offering bread crumbs; So no Android; perfect name.
- The Ipad has already won. World domination to follow
- iPad "It’s not nearly as good for creating stuff. On the other hand, it’s infinitely more convenient for consuming it"
- Citigroup saying quicker the better for $AAPL iphone on $VZ network (http://bit.ly/bjEod2 )
- Mash: David Letterman Gets an iPad, Dedicates Top Ten to It: http://bit.ly/abp0z
- AT&T May Find Apple's IPad Adds to Strain on Wireless Network - Bloomberg.com http://bit.ly/a3cPH1
- Steve Jobs interview in Time magazine http://bit.ly/9zSMTd
- Reviewers: iPad Beats Apple’s Battery Life Claims http://bit.ly/c6aIsJ
- Apple 2.0: Why iPad developers are holding back http://bit.ly/8XGzhb
- Apple 2.0: iPad apps: 1,350 and counting http://bit.ly/cTlyWO
- this changes everything for $NFLX, soon, any movie anywhere anytime on your go anywhere $AAPL iPad
Whether the iPad flops or becomes the next big thing, the competition to accurately divulge who made which microprocessor and sundry other parts will be fierce.
Apple’s IPad Bet Requires ‘Leap of Faith’ From Buyers
Apple Inc., looking to succeed where rivals like Microsoft Corp. failed, is betting that consumers are finally ready for tablet computers, even if they have to do without some features.
Apple IPad a ‘Winner,’ ‘Game Changer,’ Reviewers Say
Apple Inc.’s iPad touch-screen tablet is a winning product that threatens to replace laptops as the dominant format for personal computers, reviewers said.
To be or not to be. There has been a lot f talk about the iPad since the announcement of its launch. Still, many debate what i really is, what it can do, what are the applications (iPad Applications Focus On Gaming) that are best fit for the iPad. But the main question that remains is: how is it going to impact on the stock's price?
Weekly Chart
In the daily chart you can see that AAPL has managed to break out to the upside the slightly rising channel that contained prices during the last months. The Force Index indicator continues to signal the the uptrend is ongoing.
In the 60 minute chart you can see that the MACD is printing a negative divergence. We have seen this happen many times during this last year and then prices continued to print new highs...
From Twitter:
- What Apple critics never understand, ppl don't care about specs. They care about tech that works and gets out of the way. AAPL delivers
- CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Gaining On RIM Fast
- MSFT Office for iPad inot an option?
- Electronics Art Goes Wild With iPad App Pricing
- Conspiracy theories welcome: Apple Screws Top Gadget Blogs: No Early iPad Review Units http://bit.ly/caqLfM
- Apple Racking Up Victories In Its War With Flash
- The Same Stupid Guy Who's First In Line For Everything Is The First Guy In Line For The iPad http://bit.ly/cDthXs
- Apple Investor: Wall Street Sees Up To 400K iPads Sold This Weekend http://bit.ly/amMMXV
- China ready to roll out iPad clones http://bit.ly/dmnsIk
- @billcpu: high water mark is now. Lawsuit + iPad release is the ceiling.
- so sick of hearing about the iPad
- martalyall: I think people will be better off in $AAPL 's cloud than $GOOG le's. Google is like KGB offering bread crumbs; So no Android; perfect name.
- The Ipad has already won. World domination to follow
- iPad "It’s not nearly as good for creating stuff. On the other hand, it’s infinitely more convenient for consuming it"
- Citigroup saying quicker the better for $AAPL iphone on $VZ network (http://bit.ly/bjEod2 )
- Mash: David Letterman Gets an iPad, Dedicates Top Ten to It: http://bit.ly/abp0z
- AT&T May Find Apple's IPad Adds to Strain on Wireless Network - Bloomberg.com http://bit.ly/a3cPH1
- Steve Jobs interview in Time magazine http://bit.ly/9zSMTd
- Reviewers: iPad Beats Apple’s Battery Life Claims http://bit.ly/c6aIsJ
- Apple 2.0: Why iPad developers are holding back http://bit.ly/8XGzhb
- Apple 2.0: iPad apps: 1,350 and counting http://bit.ly/cTlyWO
- this changes everything for $NFLX, soon, any movie anywhere anytime on your go anywhere $AAPL iPad
EasyPhonia Is A Nice Service
Let me be clear. I am writing about EasyPhonia not because I want to write a classic review. I am not paid either.
I want to let you know about it because the service it provides is really excellent.
I am living in the USA while my family is still in Italy and EasyPhonia provides me with the way to call back home with cheap rates and great quality of the calls.
From fixed and mobile phones all you have to do is call an access number at the local rate. Then you directly dial the number you wish to call and the call is charged to your EasyPhonia account. This is easy and it does not require to waste time in order to insert the PIN number as you do when using the traditional calling cards. This is possible because EasyPhonia recognizes your phone as an authorized calling number.
Most of the rates to call fixed phones from the USA to other countries are about 2 cents/minutes, which is very low for the quality you get.
You can easily register and get credit using credit cards or paypal. Nice and easy. Give it a try. It works well and I am sure you will continue to use it. I have been using this for many months and I do recommend it.
Of course there are many other similar companies, but I like EasyPhonia because of the quality of the service. It is not easy to find companies that provide quality calls at reasonable rates. Normally they can be very cheap but you very often hear metallic sounds or the conversation is broken. With EasyPhonia it does not happen.
I am happy to provide you with more info should you need it.
This is the link:
EasyPhonia
Find the rates here:
EasyPhonia Rates
I want to let you know about it because the service it provides is really excellent.
I am living in the USA while my family is still in Italy and EasyPhonia provides me with the way to call back home with cheap rates and great quality of the calls.
From fixed and mobile phones all you have to do is call an access number at the local rate. Then you directly dial the number you wish to call and the call is charged to your EasyPhonia account. This is easy and it does not require to waste time in order to insert the PIN number as you do when using the traditional calling cards. This is possible because EasyPhonia recognizes your phone as an authorized calling number.
Most of the rates to call fixed phones from the USA to other countries are about 2 cents/minutes, which is very low for the quality you get.
You can easily register and get credit using credit cards or paypal. Nice and easy. Give it a try. It works well and I am sure you will continue to use it. I have been using this for many months and I do recommend it.
Of course there are many other similar companies, but I like EasyPhonia because of the quality of the service. It is not easy to find companies that provide quality calls at reasonable rates. Normally they can be very cheap but you very often hear metallic sounds or the conversation is broken. With EasyPhonia it does not happen.
I am happy to provide you with more info should you need it.
This is the link:
EasyPhonia
Find the rates here:
EasyPhonia Rates
Natural Gas Inventories Increase - United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) Soars
Working gas in storage was 1,638 Bcf as of Friday, March 26, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 12 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 16 Bcf less than last year at this time and 160 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,478 Bcf.
Storage report
Flash
Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
Click here to download Flash Player now
View the full UNG chart at Wikinvest
Analysts expected a boost of between 14 billion and 18 billion cubic feet, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Mild weather in March ended early the withdrawal period for natural gas as heating demand waned. Inventories last week were 11 percent above the five-year average, up from 8 percent the previous week.
UNG soared more than 5% today after an impressive plunge and series of negative closes during the past weeks. This is not enough for my long position that I have not closed yet hoping at least in a rebound.
Longer term I am positive about gas, but UNG unfortunately is likely a wrong way to invest in natural gas for the contango issues the ETF has. Some say that the bullish day for the ETF may be short-lived as the outlook for Natural Gas is weak. Others say that shorts on UNG will be squeezed and that UNG has the potential to go back up to $9.
The Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Surges Although The Outlook Is Still Bearish
Natural Gas Rises Most in Two Months on Slower Supply Increase
How UNG Lost 20% In March
The following news is interesting:
Year-to-date consumption of natural gas in 2010 compared to 2009 indicates growth of about 3.7 percent on an average daily basis, according to Bentek Energy. While industrial demand is up about 1.8 percent, power generation (+4.6 percent) and residential/commercial (+3.9 percent) lead the consumption growth and are, of course, tied to temperature sensitive loads during the colder than normal months of January and February.
LINK
Other news:
The Oil-to-Natural Gas Ratio Is Spiking Again" http://soc.li/e95Cypb
Oil to Natural Gas Ratio: Many Ships Have Been Broken On This Rock
One of the biggest money-losing maxims of the past 5 years is the old “Oil Historically Trades at an 8 to 1 Ratio to Natural Gas” chestnut. I’ve also heard that it’s more like 10 to 1. Whatever.
Time to forget this ratio for good.
Offshore Drillers See Swelling M&A Interest
Obama permits offshore oil drilling
NATURAL GAS MARKET INDICATORS
Natural Gas - A Small Example of Acceptable Fraud
The Coming Age of Natural Gas
Media reports have specified that prominent amount of natural gas has been committed by Qatar for China and India.
Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah told that a shipment contract of 12 tons of liquefied natural gas to China had already been signed by his country and the shipment contract of seven tons of liquefied natural gas had been signed to India.
For another ton of gas, Qatar and India are discussing over the shipment.
The Balance Of Power In The World’s Gas Markets and United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
Fracking Makes Natural Gas No Cleaner than Coal, Study Says
Storage report
Flash
Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
Click here to download Flash Player now
View the full UNG chart at Wikinvest
Analysts expected a boost of between 14 billion and 18 billion cubic feet, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Mild weather in March ended early the withdrawal period for natural gas as heating demand waned. Inventories last week were 11 percent above the five-year average, up from 8 percent the previous week.
UNG soared more than 5% today after an impressive plunge and series of negative closes during the past weeks. This is not enough for my long position that I have not closed yet hoping at least in a rebound.
Longer term I am positive about gas, but UNG unfortunately is likely a wrong way to invest in natural gas for the contango issues the ETF has. Some say that the bullish day for the ETF may be short-lived as the outlook for Natural Gas is weak. Others say that shorts on UNG will be squeezed and that UNG has the potential to go back up to $9.
The Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Surges Although The Outlook Is Still Bearish
Natural Gas Rises Most in Two Months on Slower Supply Increase
How UNG Lost 20% In March
The following news is interesting:
Year-to-date consumption of natural gas in 2010 compared to 2009 indicates growth of about 3.7 percent on an average daily basis, according to Bentek Energy. While industrial demand is up about 1.8 percent, power generation (+4.6 percent) and residential/commercial (+3.9 percent) lead the consumption growth and are, of course, tied to temperature sensitive loads during the colder than normal months of January and February.
LINK
Other news:
The Oil-to-Natural Gas Ratio Is Spiking Again" http://soc.li/e95Cypb
Oil to Natural Gas Ratio: Many Ships Have Been Broken On This Rock
One of the biggest money-losing maxims of the past 5 years is the old “Oil Historically Trades at an 8 to 1 Ratio to Natural Gas” chestnut. I’ve also heard that it’s more like 10 to 1. Whatever.
Time to forget this ratio for good.
Offshore Drillers See Swelling M&A Interest
Obama permits offshore oil drilling
NATURAL GAS MARKET INDICATORS
Natural Gas - A Small Example of Acceptable Fraud
The Coming Age of Natural Gas
Media reports have specified that prominent amount of natural gas has been committed by Qatar for China and India.
Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah told that a shipment contract of 12 tons of liquefied natural gas to China had already been signed by his country and the shipment contract of seven tons of liquefied natural gas had been signed to India.
For another ton of gas, Qatar and India are discussing over the shipment.
The Balance Of Power In The World’s Gas Markets and United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
Fracking Makes Natural Gas No Cleaner than Coal, Study Says
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