Dow: Flirting With 11000

The emini Dow has printed finally a down day. Worries over Greece problems and the possible rates rise are the news of the day. The force index indicator is now negative in the daily frame indicating that a corection might start from here. A strong dollar is testing 1.33. Momentum and volume are low, but the the emini managed to get close to 11000 without a pause. I continue to believe that a return within the trading range is likely. We could see a volatility increase. I am still short the S&P with a losing position to manage. A bull trap could bring prices back within the trading range.

Almost all stocks are moving above their 20-day and 50 and 100-day moving averages. Negtive trends only for very few of them. Some stocks are seeing their short term trend deteriorate. We will see if they are anticipating a wider correction, as I think. Only PG and TRV are printing a new 20-day low this morning. Only MCD is printing a new 20-day high. MSFT is printing 4 consecutive up closes. TRV is printin 5 consecutive down closes.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.


RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.

In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

In my charts, I used three indicators.
The force Index indicator. I used the force index indicator, which is an indicator measuring the force of bulls during uptrends and the force of bears in downtrends. It takes into account price and volume. I applied a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the force index to help track the trend. When the trend is positive, the color is blue; when the trend is negative, the color is red.
I applied the %b indicator, which is derived from the Bollinger bands. It measures where the last price is in relation to the bands and it tells us where we are within the bands.
I used also the MACD indicator.

The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), , Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG),The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS)